Writing from prison, Ross Ulbricht predicts the current wave in Bitcoin incited by a price drop under $4,200 could lead to a bear market.
Writing from the United States Penitentiary Tucson, Ross Ulbricht sees Bitcoin (BTC) getting closer to the bears as a possibility for 2020.
Posting to his personal Medium account on April 12, the Silk Road founder wrote the recent volatility of the cryptocurrency — in particular the March 12 bloodbath — will most likely lead to a bear market until “June or July 2020”. However, it could drag on into next year.
“The cycle-degree bull market — from Bitcoin’s beginning to the ~$20,000 peak of late 2017 — is over. We are now in the last wave… of Bitcoin’s first cycle-degree bear market (the largest yet).”
Bitcoin could bottom out at $3,200… or lower
To back up his statement, Ulbricht referred to a prediction he had made in December, in which he said a BTC price drop under $4,200 would most likely lead to a bear market. In this scenario, Ulbricht says the cryptocurrency could bottom out at $3,200.
“A break below the major low of $3,200 will be a solid confirmation of this, at which point we will be trying to determine when the final low is in. This will be a major buying opportunity. If the price rises above the peak near $14,000, we will have to reevaluate our interpretation, but at this point that seems like a very unlikely scenario.”
Even in this bearish outcome, the wave to follow may make the 2017 peaks look like distant foothills. The Silk Road founder warns that it will take a lot of “fortitude” from inventors to buy BTC at that time, but the “new highs will be well worth it”.
Ulbricht is currently serving two life sentences without the possibility of parole after being found guilty of money laundering, computer hacking, and conspiracy to traffic narcotics. He still provides periodic analyses on the Bitcoin market from prison.